In the years that I’ve been doing predictions, this round seems to be particularly difficult. Why? Well, the overall landscape is relatively depressing. For now at least, the days of new and interesting start-ups are on hold. The big guys aren’t exactly in an experimental mood. And even social networking seems sorta played now 5 years after the introduction of MySpace.
That said, here’s my best shot at breaking out the crystal ball and taking a glimpse into 2009.
- “New” Monster bombs. The dinosaur has been touting its new and improved site, launching Jan. 10, for quite awhile now. I’m sure you can’t sleep, right? Details here. The world is changing faster than Monster can keep up. The rise of networking sites like LinkedIn and Facebook, performance-based marketing like AdWords and commoditization via Craiglist and Indeed are making it immensely challenging for a model like Monster’s to grow. No matter how many bells-and-whistles they add. Checkout IBM’s Ray Schreyer’s insight here.
- Yahoo sells HotJobs. Yahoo! is a mess. As a result, I expect a new CEO to come in and cut expenses and raise some quick cash. Realizing big growth isn’t in job postings, even though sources tell us the property is profitable, Y! dumps HotJobs. An oversees buyer looking to make a splash in the states could be a likely candidate.
- Google AdWords revenue stagnates. A lot of experts are predicting pay-per-click advertising to blossom under tougher economic times, similar to the way it did in 2003-05 during the last downturn. I agree. Performance-based advertising is favorable to the alternatives. However, everyone getting into the pay-per-click game means more money out of Google’s pocket and into others’ like Facebook, MySpace and LinkedIn (CPM for now), as well as job aggregation solutions like Indeed, Simply Hired and TopUSAJobs. The result is more money in PPC models overall, but less for Google’s coffers. It’ll be interesting to see if ‘Friendsense‘ can save the day.
- R.I.P. Jobster. Everyday these cats stay in business is pretty amazing. I expect the doors to either close, itzbig-style, or a sale to happen in the bargain bin. And how funny is it that former CEO Jason Goldberg has cashed out with his start-up before his old one?
- Mobile hits prime-time, again. I know, I know. Pundits have been claiming the Year of Mobile since about 2005, but there are a few things working in its favor heading into 2009 that weren’t quite there before, most notably the popularity of the iPhone. Almost a quarter of the phones in the U.S. now are smartphones (have Web capability, many with WiFi), which is sure to grow. Google search frequency on mobile devices is increasing and Android should gain some traction along with Blackberry’s marketplace. Checkout this interview with Michael Arrington and Jason Calacanis for more.
- Social networking infiltrates Web search results. Techcrunch covered this really well last month. Facebook needs to get into search. Not necessarily via their own site, because they have a deal with Microsoft, but I think creating a Firefox plug-in where your social network adds value to a particular search query would be really interesting. StumbleUpon might be a good example to look at and Friend Connect is a step in this direction.
- Mucho layoffs. A pretty easy prediction to make, although I hope I’m wrong. With growing economic challenges in the employment sector, layoffs are inevitable. I’m particularly surprised Monster has yet to follow the CareerBuilder layoffs from December.
- New CEO at Monster. A stagnant stock price, a not-so-sexy relaunch and acquisitions that didn’t exactly turn out the way they had planned all point to Monster replacing Sal by year’s end.
- Indeed, Simply Hired or Oodle get acquired. A bigger player will either want to kill-off one of these competitors - if not all of them - or jump on the vertical search bandwagon in a serious way. (Yeah, I think this whole vertical search thing is really going to take-off.) By 2012, it’ll be too late to gobble these guys up; they’ll be doing the gobbling.
- ATS industry gets particularly screwy. Maybe it’s Finnigan going to Jobvite or the CATS thingy or Mr. Ted giving it away in hopes of making money in value-adds, but I’m feeling the winds of change in the applicant tracking industry. They’re also feeling the pinch of customers demanding better tracking (why is adding Google Analytics such a big deal?) and better search engine optimization from postings. I also expect to see more services like Jobstick, which enhance the already-established recruiting software experience for employers.
Honorable mentions: We stop talking about video resumes as a viable business. VisualCV and/or StandoutJobs gets acquired. And a Chinese-based job site comes to America.
Happy New Year!
See also:
JobBoarders Roundtable
Your HR Guy
Eric Shannon
Popularity: 26% [?]
January 5th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Monster has delayed its new launch with 2 days.
Watch the counter! It’s now jan. 12th.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
Hi Joel,
Interesting predictions! What are your thoughts on the e-harmonies in 2009? Itzbig -that I know of- is the only one that has bombed.
Thanks!
January 5th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
@linda I expect a very challenging environment for the eHarmonies, particularly for Climber who I don’t believe got the investment money that a Jobfox received.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
My Dearest Jolanda,
Please note the clock on the home page (www.monster.com), denoting the projected lift off. No Delay. Come hell or high water, we will roll this mother out…It may be broke, but Sal ain’t no joke…
DARK-oooooooo
January 6th, 2009 at 12:23 am
I know you despise monster, but to say your’e surprised there havent been any layoffs and predict a changing of the CEO at said company in addition to a failure of a product not out yet is downright evil.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:47 am
Very Insightful post Joel, thanks for this. Any thoughts on how Broadbean’s US expansion will go?
January 6th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Excellent post and predictions Joel.
I agree with most of it, particular the onset of pay for performance for not only aggregators, but job boards also. I agree that mobile could gain proper traction this year, but progress will be slow, due to lack of cash to invest by the boards.
Impoverished boards will fall or be eaten up in sizeable numbers, and successfull boards will be busy mopping up their market share. Bells and whistles may have to wait longer.
I’ll hold my tongue intil I see the new Monster. We all know it’s possible to have a great site. They may surprise us.
I also predict there will be more criticism of the UK’s 9th annual National Online Recruitment Awards, as ever. None of any substance though.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
If every vendor is doomed to fail - why should anyone try to be in biz anymore? The blogosphere is great for new, rapid information - but the blogosphere sucks when start-ups and others get crushed before they can even get their feet on the ground or try a new product line.
Actually I believe the e-harmony models (quality versus quantity) are the wave of the future. Recruiters are clamoring for the right match versus resume spam (same sentiment on the job seeker side). Now many recruiters who want that change will need to go beyond hitting the “send/receive” button in their email Inbox, like they’ve been doing for years.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
I disagree that e-harmony models will be the wave of the future. Jobfox has done nothing to impress me so far. As a recruiter I see too many “upgrades” to find better ways to receive quality candidates so where are they? I’m not sure if passive candidates are willing to leave a job if going to a startup isn’t exactly unaffected by the economic downturn. There is no quantity. On the job seeker side, the constant popup offers for money and now the Intros service is a $30/month service - not exactly a great time based on the economy. If the constant changing of their business model at Jobfox is any indication of survival in this economy then I don’t see it. How far can $20 Million go?
January 8th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
Joel
I’m not sure the media is giving monster enough credit for all the changes they are making. I know there are a lot of ex Monster people that are very bitter and the old technology is still abundant and innovation had disappeared and hell if you have ever tried to work with them or their ad agencies you would feel the pain and frustration like we do every day …. but lets look at what Sal has accomplished and give him the benefit of the doubt for at least 45 days after launch. SO what has Sal done …
1. The new monster 1 platform worldwide… This is huge as when they add features and functionality it can go all over for consistency in brand and user experience. This not only some major infrastructure costs, helps global firms and is just the right thing to do. Supporting different Team and DB in each country was stupid.
2. He is committed to search. Not that I agree that trovix was the end all and be all (unless you got the cheque) the fact that he committed to improving search and the user interface and puts his money into it is okay by me.
3. He still grew international operations.
4. He is making the online advertising job market a better place.
No one likes to see an industry leader go down. CNN and all the job reports can do that … as industry pundits lets support Monster ( and others) and help them grow in this rocky economy so when people need a place to find available jobs … they can find them
Just my 2 cents…
Deb McGrath
CEO
HR.com
January 10th, 2009 at 9:29 am
trying to check out the “new” monster today and getting nothing but a blank error screen on the homepage?? : 0
January 14th, 2009 at 1:00 am
Joel - Great list. Predictions are tough but always fun to look at. I think we’ll continue to see a lot of startups in the HR space. Whether they’ll be good, game changers, etc. I don’t know - but the market is too big, too open and too ripe for disruption for startups to ignore it.
On a side note - thank you for the honorable mention re: being acquired. It’s an interesting prediction…
January 19th, 2009 at 9:49 am
I think you bring up many valid points in your prediction of 2009. It is a time to underpromise and over deliver! Thanks for sharing this with us.
Best regards,
Sheila Greco